The fortnight| • | ASX defence names fell 6.7% on average while global defence primes rose 4.7%. | | • | Tracked employers posted 241 roles, and BAE Systems Australia alone posted 111. | | • | Osborne and Henderson led hiring by city, with 38 and 34 roles. | | • | Defence buyers have 42 tenders open, 14 new and 14 closing before 5 November. | | • | Three contracts of $10m or more totalled $80m, well under the $1.2bn fortnightly average. | | • | Awards have paused while air and missile defence asks open, so teaming decisions are due now. |
Calls and moves where the sector is heading, and the moveCall 1 · Layered air defence · high confidence · New call Defence will put layered air and missile defence into tender across land and sea by mid 2027. FIC: Major systems, Support, Industry WhyDefence opened an EOI for Army's medium range ground based air and missile defence (AIR/EOI/102637/1), closing 26 November. Navy's request for proposal for ship drone defence (GWEOS/RFP/97003/1) closes 27 November. Defence committed $2.4bn on 16 October to sovereign command and control for integrated air and missile defence. The moveThe tail is sensor integration, command and control interfaces, launcher sustainment and missile storage. The $2.4bn command network is the force multiplier every shooter must plug into. Australian firms in integration, test and secure communications should team with bidding primes before 26 November. Sources: AusTender AIR/EOI/102637/1 · Defence commits funding to sovereign air and missile defence… · AusTender GWEOS/RFP/97003/1 Call 2 · Onshore missile inputs · medium confidence · New call Defence will tender onshore missile propulsion or naval shell filling work by the end of 2027. FIC: Supplies, Industry, Facilities and training areas WhyDefence is asking about a domestic plant to load, assemble and pack five inch naval rounds (GWEOS/RFI/99180/1). Defence scientists are mapping local carbon fibre for rocket motor cases (102967) ahead of a weapons test briefing (DDG TE 2092-1). Northrop Grumman's local solid rocket motor plans are firming. The moveThe tail is energetics, composite cases, test ranges and explosive ordnance storage. Firms with carbon fibre, precision machining or explosives handling should join the sovereign supply chains Northrop Grumman and NIOA are building. Tighter spending control will reward clean qualification and cost records. Sources: AusTender GWEOS/RFI/99180/1 · AusTender 102967 · Northrop Grumman plans firm up for local solid rocket motor… Call 3 · Base protection · medium confidence · New call Defence will buy layered protection for its bases, including drone defeat, within 12 months. FIC: Facilities and training areas, Support, Industry WhyCanberra is fast tracking laws that let Defence shoot down drones over bases. Marles conceded on 9 October that United States agents breached restricted areas of Australian bases in covert audits. Home Affairs opened an RFI for surveillance and enforcement communications supply and sustainment (HOMEAFFAIRS/2220/RFI). The moveThe tail is detection sensors, perimeter systems, access control, command software and the guard and response workforce. Legal authority to engage drones turns detection into a buyable defence. Pair sensors with integration and sustainment, and team with estate contractors who already hold base access. Sources: Kestrel brief 2026-10-12 · Marles concedes base security gaps after US covert penetration… · AusTender HOMEAFFAIRS/2220/RFI Call 4 · Collins life extension · high confidence · New call Navy will buy Collins submarine training and sustainment well beyond 2029. FIC: Collective training, Support, Personnel WhyNavy opened an RFI on 21 October for Collins Class Training Services after June 2029 (Navy/TF/CCTS/RFI), closing 25 November. Australian Submarine Corporation renewed HIFraser's Collins valve and maintenance contract, worth nearly $40m. On Kestrel's reading, the Collins life of type extension keeps the boats running until nuclear powered submarines arrive. The moveThe tail is simulator support, instructors, spares obsolescence and dock workforce for an ageing class. Training providers should team with Collins sustainers now, before the RFT. Specialist valve, hydraulic and electrical suppliers face steadier work but compete with nuclear programs for people. Sources: AusTender Navy/TF/CCTS/RFI · ASC extends HIFraser's Collins submarine valve and maintenance… · Babcock Australasia job postings Procurement and spend 12 months of contracts, and what Defence is asking for| • | Maritime platforms took $13.3bn of $31.7bn over 12 months, 42% of the total. Austal ($6.6bn) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ($3.8bn) won most of it. | | • | Spend is concentrated in a few giant awards. Austal, Metrea and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries hold $14.7bn, 46% of the total, from just four notices. | | • | Defence placed $24.9bn across 212 notices and Home Affairs $5.8bn across 21. Home Affairs is buying again, with Australian Border Force ships' boats, surveillance technology and job role assessment asks open. | | • | Missiles and munitions spend of $2.6bn ran mostly through Foreign Military Sales, at $2.2bn. The open asks point to sovereign work in shell filling, rocket motor composites, weapons test and ship drone defence. | | • | Information technology, software and cyber had 49 notices and sustainment 38, the busiest categories by count. No winner dominates, and BAE Systems Australia leads sustainment with only $226m, which leaves room for mid tier firms. |
| Capability | Share of 12 mths | 12 mths | Fortnight | Top winner, 12 mths |
|---|
| Maritime platforms and systems | | $13.3bn | – | Austal Defence Shipbuilding Australia | | Sensors, electronics and communications | | $4.8bn | $10m | Metrea Australia | | Missiles, munitions and weapons | | $2.6bn | – | FMS Account Reserve Bank of Australia | | Estate, base services and facilities | | $2.6bn | – | Renewal Sa | | Fuel, logistics and supplies | | $2.2bn | – | Ventia Australia | | Sustainment and in-service support | | $1.6bn | $59m | BAE Systems Australia | | ICT, software and cyber | | $1.6bn | – | DATA#3 | | Training, health and people | | $1.2bn | – | CH2 | | Land vehicles and transport | | $568m | – | Thales Australia | | Engineering and professional services | | $567m | – | Bycc Alliance | | Aircraft and aviation | | $267m | – | FMS Account Reserve Bank of Australia | | Other | | $467m | $10m | Commonwealth Bank of Australia |
By buyer: Defence $24.9bn, Home Affairs $5.8bn, Australian Federal Police $618m, Veterans' Affairs $280m, Australian Submarine Agency $28m, Australian Signals Directorate $11m.
Top winners: Austal Defence Shipbuilding Australia $6.6bn, Metrea Australia $4.3bn, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries $3.8bn, FMS Account Reserve Bank of Australia $2.8bn, Boeing Defence Australia $989m. What Defence is asking for now · 42 defence tenders open, 14 new  Air and missile defence Defence is forming a shortlist for Army's medium range air and missile defence (AIR/EOI/102637/1), closing 26 November. Navy's very short range system for ships is at request for proposal stage (GWEOS/RFP/97003/1), closing 27 November. Kestrel's read: integrators already inside the air defence enterprise start ahead under the new $2.4bn command network. EOI AIR/EOI/102637/1 closes 26 Nov · RFP GWEOS/RFP/97003/1 closes 27 Nov Guided weapons and explosive ordnance Defence is at RFI stage on a five inch shell filling plant (GWEOS/RFI/99180/1) and is surveying carbon fibre for rocket motor cases (102967). A test and evaluation industry briefing (DDG TE 2092-1) opens the next layer of work. This is positioning time, and Northrop Grumman and NIOA look best placed on the news flow. RFI GWEOS/RFI/99180/1 closes 6 Nov · Notice GWEOS/NOT/99180/1 closes 6 Nov · RFQ 102967 closes 26 Oct · Notice DDG TE 2092-1 closes 19 Nov Submarine and naval training The Collins training RFI (Navy/TF/CCTS/RFI) looks past June 2029, and the naval nuclear safety regulator wants pressurised water reactor technical support (ANNPSR 001). Survivability school sustainment (NAVY/TF/SSSS/92219) and a leadership program (NAVY/TF/TA-ITLM99627) close in early November. Babcock, a Collins sustainer, is hiring at Henderson and looks positioned. RFI Navy/TF/CCTS/RFI closes 25 Nov · RFT ANNPSR 001 closes 10 Nov · RFT NAVY/TF/SSSS/92219 closes 2 Nov · RFT NAVY/TF/TA-ITLM99627 closes 6 Nov Space Defence is tendering narrowband satellite communications (ADSS/RFT/84124/1), closing 7 December. Power works for the deep space radar at Harold E. Holt (AZ6640) show that site being built out. Kestrel's read: space surveillance is becoming a steady buyer, and Saab Australia's new space mission system is aimed at it. RFT ADSS/RFT/84124/1 closes 7 Dec · Notice ADSS/NOT/84124/1 closes 31 Dec · Notice AZ6640 closes 5 Nov Queensland training estate Most of the 14 base works RFTs are routine refurbishments. The signal is in Queensland, with temporary facilities at Mount Stuart (S-EST10852) and Greenbank (S-EST10853) and an interim modular build at Lavarack Barracks (S-EST11265). Kestrel's read: Army needs training capacity in Queensland quickly, which favours regional builders with unexploded ordnance clearance experience. RFT S-EST10852 closes 29 Oct · RFT S-EST10853 closes 29 Oct · RFT S-EST11265 closes 26 Oct · RFT S-EST08611 closes 30 Oct Closing before the next edition (and 7 routine others) | Closes | Stage | Approach to market |
|---|
| 26 Oct | RFT | S-EST11265 Lavarack Barracks Building works, QLD
Department of Defence - DSRG | | 26 Oct | RFQ | 102967 Composite Materials Capability
Department of Defence - DSRG | | 29 Oct | RFT | S-EST10852 Mount Stuart Training Area Non-Permanent Facility Installation, QLD
Department of Defence - DSRG | | 29 Oct | RFT | S-EST10853 Greenbank Training Area Non-Permanent Facility Installation, QLD
Department of Defence - DSRG | | 30 Oct | RFT | S-EST08611 Greenvale Training Area Road Works, QLD
Department of Defence - DSRG | | 2 Nov | RFT | NAVY/TF/SSSS/92219 Royal Australian Navy School of Survivability and Ship Safety South Sustainment Support Contract
Department of Defence - DSRG | | 5 Nov | Notice | AZ6640 ESTJ9360PH1T2 - Alternate Energy Solution (AES)
Department of Defence - DSRG |
Who is hiring 241 roles posted at tracked employersBAE Systems Australia 111 roles, the most of any tracked employer, led by supportability engineering, systems and safety engineering, and shipyard trades. Osborne, Melbourne, Henderson and Edinburgh carry most, and this edition sets the baseline. So whatOn Kestrel's reading, the Osborne trades serve the Hunter class frigates, and the supportability depth means logistics engineers will grow scarcer and dearer. Babcock Australasia 41 roles, at least 13 of them in Henderson across production, planning, scheduling, purchasing and safety. Adelaide carries information technology and cyber roles, and this edition sets the baseline. So whatKestrel's read: Babcock is building a Henderson production team for naval sustainment, and it will compete with Austal for the same people. Austal Australia 18 roles, 16 in Henderson and Fremantle across marine trades, quality and supply. Two recruitment advisers in Henderson point to volume hiring, from a first edition baseline. So whatThe National Reconstruction Fund's $245m for a Landing Craft Heavy facility, on Kestrel's reading at Henderson, will lift Austal's trades demand through 2027. Location | Role Category | Company |
Skills demand, 12 month direction | ▲ | Supportability and logistics | 19 logistics and sustainment postings, spread across BAE Systems, Raytheon and Austal, show primes staffing for long in service tails. | | ▲ | Shipyard trades | 25 trades postings cluster in Osborne and Henderson as Whyalla sheds over 250 steelworks jobs, a skilled pool now in play. | | ▶ | Aerospace and air | 28 aerospace postings across Williamtown, Amberley, Tindal and Wagga Wagga reflect steady aviation sustainment demand. | | ▶ | Guided weapons | One guided weapons posting sits against a growing onshore missile pipeline, so hiring has yet to follow the asks. | | ▶ | Software and cyber | 14 postings held steady as the Australian Signals Directorate warned ageing government systems need urgent overhaul. |
Forwarded this email? Subscribe here. 🙏 Forwarding this email to colleagues to subscribe validates the brief's usefulness. What the market thinks 12 month outlook, not financial advice| • | ASX defence names fell 6.7% on average while global primes rose 4.7%, a broad small cap sector move with no named cause. | | • | Electro Optic Systems fell 14% despite its largest contract, a $700m Kuwait counter drone deal, whose delivery sets its 12 month path. | | • | Elsight fell 27.9%, Codan 12.5% and AML3D 12% with no visible cause, and Elsight remains up 129.3% over 12 months. | | • | Austal rose 7.7% in the fortnight the National Reconstruction Fund backed its Landing Craft Heavy facility, though no source links the two. | | • | Over 12 months, air defence and onshore munitions demand favours prime integrators and their suppliers, while small caps without Defence contracts stay exposed. |
ASX-listed | Company | 2 wks | 12 mths |
|---|
| ELS Elsight | ▼ 27.9% | ▲ 129.3% | | EOS Electro Optic Systems | ▼ 14.0% | ▲ 61.3% | | CDA Codan | ▼ 12.5% | ▲ 64.8% | | AL3 AML3D | ▼ 12.0% | ▼ 48.8% | | ASB Austal | ▲ 7.7% | ▼ 38.4% | | AVA AVA Risk Group | ▲ 6.8% | ▼ 38.2% |
| Global primes in Australian programs | Company | 2 wks | 12 mths |
|---|
| 012450.KS Hanwha Aerospace | ▼ 16.0% | ▼ 19.0% | | NOC Northrop Grumman | ▲ 13.9% | ▼ 9.6% | | RHM.DE Rheinmetall | ▲ 10.6% | ▼ 40.8% | | LMT Lockheed Martin | ▲ 10.5% | ▲ 13.2% | | SAAB-B.ST Saab | ▲ 6.7% | ▲ 33.1% | | RTX RTX | ▲ 6.3% | ▲ 7.7% |
|
Five Eyes and alliance defence indices | Index | 2 wks | 12 mths |
|---|
| GlobalGlobal X Defense Tech | ▲ 4.9% | ▼ 7.7% | | United StatesSPDR Aerospace & Defense | ▼ 1.8% | ▼ 6.2% | | United KingdomUK Aerospace & Defence | ▲ 2.4% | ▲ 0.2% | | CanadaCanadian Defence | ▲ 4.1% | ▲ 54.9% | | AustraliaGlobal X Defence Tech | ▲ 5.7% | ▼ 16.7% | | NATOThemes Transatlantic Defense | ▲ 1.8% | ▼ 4.7% | | EuropeSTOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense | ▲ 1.3% | ▼ 8.7% |
What the commentators argue and where the money wentHellyer warns early UK steel cutting on the first AUKUS submarine signals a troubled program Marcus Hellyer (Strategic Analysis Australia) The moneyThe money hedges the same way. Navy's Collins training RFI (Navy/TF/CCTS/RFI) looks past June 2029, and Australian Submarine Corporation renewed HIFraser's Collins valve contract worth nearly $40m. Shoebridge argues national security AI does not need looser copyright laws Michael Shoebridge (Strategic Analysis Australia), Marcus Hellyer (Strategic Analysis Australia) The moneyThe money says nothing yet. A Defence or intelligence tender for sovereign AI training would show whether buyers ask for creative works or only technical and classified data. Shoebridge argues AI has overtaken REDSPICE and risks rushed cyber decisions Michael Shoebridge (Strategic Analysis Australia) The moneyNo tender, contract or hiring in this edition touches the Australian Signals Directorate or cyber. A rescoped REDSPICE or a new AI procurement there would settle it. Dates to watch| 26 Oct | Composite rocket motor case RFQ closes Responses show whether Australia has the carbon fibre capacity for local rocket motors. | | 2 Nov | Watercraft and seaboats panel RFT closes The panel sets who supplies ADF boats for years. | | 6 Nov | Five inch shell filling RFI closes An RFT would follow if industry shows a credible local plant. | | 10 Nov | Naval reactor technical support RFT closes The award will show which firms hold scarce pressurised water reactor expertise. | | 19 Nov | Weapons test and evaluation industry briefing closes The work plan will show where weapons test money goes first. | | 26 Nov | Medium range air and missile defence EOI closes The shortlist will show which primes lead and whom they team with. |
Next edition: Thursday 05 November 2026. Kestrel reads the Australian defence market every weekday morning. Subscribe free | 
